with words we govern men

article taken from here

I’ve wanted to write about this for a long time and here it is. I believe that there will be a large war with most powers dragged into it around 2014. I will justify this grim assumption in this article, but I truly hope that I will be wrong.

From the way the world is going, the region where a cataclysmic event may happen is in the Middle East. There are too many sides fighting for power and dominance of the region, and each is pushing the envelope further and further, currently testing the other sides’ patience and diplomatic ability.

The world today does not want to see war, necessarily. However, the veterans of World War II are dying out. They are the ones that have seen how devastating and brutal a world war can be, and how even the most civilized countries are ready to indiscriminately kill civilians and demolish whole cities in order to gain a simple ability to sell something that is located in a different land.

Commerce is the name of the game, and those that have the most resources have the best commercial ability. Commerce is power and leverage. It is control of whole economies. The United States has been very discreet about imperial aspirations. The basics of empire expansion are control of resources for a purpose of selling them. Not everyone has the power to expand in such a manner, and most take the old-school route — that is, guns blazing and bombs flying, with tanks sweeping in and destruction in the armies’ path.

The most important resource allocation in the world right now is located in the Middle East. Also, the biggest rivalries are in the Middle East. The interesting thing is that it was Europe and the United States that created the reason for there to be conflict in this area. They sparked old rivalries anew in the Middle East by creating Israel as a state. It was a gesture of good will from the Allies and the USSR. However, dislocating a large portion of people and telling them that their rivals are now the owners of the soil is bound to get one side pissed off.

And guess who that side is: the whole Arab world. Now, I am not against the State of Israel, but it is the reason for instability in the Middle East today. With European and mainly America’s backing and support, Israel was able to muster up one of the most able fighting forces in the world and some of the most sophisticated weaponry for their military.

One of my professors, Brandon Valeriano, Ph.D., spent a semester pounding into us that there are patterns that begin every conflict. Those are the presence of territorial disputes (proximity of states does not matter), alliances, rivalries, arms build ups, and hardliners. With statistical proof, he eagerly showed that there is empirical support for these steps to war. Using this, I would like to take apart the current situation between Iran and Israel (the biggest threats to peace in the Middle East).

There is definitely a territorial dispute between the two states — Palestine, Gaza, West Bank, we all know the story. There are alliances that are at odds with each other: Israel, EU and US, Iran and most of the Arab world. The deal with alliances is that, simply put, it makes the other side jittery that it will be attacked. It makes it look like the other side is stronger, and then the other begins making their own alliances. The build up of alliances leads to shows of force and the emboldening of each respective side, creating a potentially dangerous situation. The fact that there is a rivalry between Iran and Israel is not even questionable. Both sides have hardliners in power right now. Netanyahu is a hardliner in Israel and Ahmadinejad is serious hardliner in Iran. We all read the news and know the relationship between these two sides.

Finally, I would like to address the most recent development of arms build ups between both sides. Israel already has nuclear weapons, although it is not officially considered a nuclear state. Iran has the potential to create nuclear weapons, and recently tested missiles that can reach Israel and potentially deliver WMD warheads. This recent development is the reason why I am more than sure that the assumption I stated at the beginning of this article is correct.

There is commercial value for Israel and its dominance in the region. Their companies, through partnerships in U.S., can gain access to resource extraction and delivery, in that way gaining political leverage. That is the concept of territoriality, for there has to be value placed on the land for there to be a dispute. In today’s world, China is too dependent on the rest of the world for most its economy. It will not risk losing its hegemony in its sphere of influence as long as the other great powers stay out of its political life.

North Korea is nothing but a hollow shell. It has no potential and will not act unless provoked. There is nothing really in North Korea, and there is no danger there. Russia will not engage in a large war anytime soon. The disorganization within its military is too great and the weaponry itself is increasingly obsolete with each passing year. The United States cannot engage in another conflict. It is already stretched too thin in two unpopular wars. There is nothing in Africa and Latin America to spark a large conflict right now. Europe is too peaceful and has too much to lose at the moment to get mired somewhere in the world in a costly and unpopular war.

This leaves the Middles East. Most of the Middle Eastern countries are unable to support large military operations. Arabs will not fight Arabs. That was proven when the U.S. went into Iraq. None of the Arab countries sent soldiers to fight alongside Americans. I know that some readers will mention the Iran-Iraq War, but that is a separate case that will not be repeated anytime soon.

That leaves Israel and Iran to spark a conflict. Following that, it is depressing to think about the chain of events that may take place – which sides will get involved, who will take advantage and start their own conflicts, and what the toll will be on the economies of the world and whether or not WMDs will be used.

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